By October 1, this number could increase by more than 300,000.
The creators of the model say they assumed that the countries on offer would follow the Social Divergence Guidelines. If prevention measures are weakened, deaths may be higher.
Large numbers of residents, big problems
The eight most populous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean – Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, Chile, and Ecuador – make up over 82% of the region’s population.
Therefore, it is not surprising that these countries lead exponential growth in both coronavirus infections and deaths.
Of the 33 countries in the region, these eight countries account for 94% of all cases and 96% of all deaths.
Brazil is the furthest and worst offender. Her recorded cases and deaths – 1,496,858 and 61,884, respectively, as of Thursday – continue climbing. Seven-day moving average for newly confirmed cases is as high as ever. Reporting over 40,000 new cases a day is no longer unusual.
In Mexico, the reopening of the economy took center stage. In Mexico City, the hardest hit area of the country, beneficiaries have enjoyed cocktails and tapas at restaurants this week for the first time since March 23. It is also allowed to open hotels, salons and markets.
This is despite the death toll of 21,189 as of Thursday evening. The death toll is twice that of a month ago and is now higher than the death toll in Spain.
In general, the smaller states in the region performed much better in containing their outbreaks. Uruguay and Paraguay recorded fewer than 50 combined deaths. Belize has recorded only 28 cases since the outbreak began.
But health officials are concerned about some of the other smaller countries such as Costa Rica, whose combined cases more than doubled last month. The Pan American Health Organization says the new cases may not reach its peak until October.
Broad losses in disease outbreaks
The economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean was not high before the epidemic arrived. It has become much worse since then.
Even countries that have largely escaped the worst health effects of the epidemic will not be able to avoid the consequences.
Many island nations in the Caribbean have a limited number of cases, but they will see massive blows to their economies as tourism, the lifeblood of many, is rapidly declining.
Some of the unemployed will come from the aviation industry, and airlines in the region will be among the worst affected in the world.
The Mexican airline, Mexico, filed for bankruptcy this week, the third airline in the region to do so since the outbreak began, joining Latam Airlines and Avianca Airlines.
Forest fires may not seem to be directly related to a deadly virus. But environmental activists have warned that illegal loggers and livestock have benefited from limited official resources during the epidemic, and have burned vast areas of forests for financial gain.
Signs of hope
Peru and Chile registered the sixth and seventh most confirmed cases of the virus worldwide, with a total of approximately 600,000.
But after months of grim news, both countries sounded a more optimistic tone this week.
In Chile, on Wednesday it recorded its lowest one-day high in new cases since May 19. The country’s average seven days have also decreased significantly since its peak on June 21.
“At the national level, the data is good,” said Chilean Health Minister Enrique Paris. “The country is still suffering from a fever, but the fever is much less,” he said, indicating an improvement in the number of infections.
On Thursday, Peru celebrated its sixth consecutive day when the number of people discharged from hospitals was higher than the number of new cases.
“… one of the best dates in combating the epidemic,” the Peruvian Ministry of Health said in a statement on Thursday.