A series of surveys in swing states (not swinging) released on Wednesday make this reality clear.
How bad are these numbers for Trump? To put a good point on it: really bad.
Now, let’s take a look at what these numbers mean for Trump’s chances of reaching 270 in November.
* If Trump loses to Texas (and wins everywhere he won 2016), it is Lose For Biden, 270 electoral votes compared to 268 electoral votes.
* If Trump lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (and he won everywhere else he won in 2016), he Lose To Biden 278 to 260.
* If Trump lost Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and won everywhere else he won in 2016), then it is Lose To Biden 279 to 259.
* If Trump, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin lose (and everywhere else he won in 2016), he is Lose To Biden 276 to 262.
* If Trump lost Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and he won everywhere else he won in 2016), it is Lose To Biden 271 to 267.
The point here is not to say that any of these electoral map scenarios is closed. After all, we are still 152 days after the November 3 elections. (And yes, I counted.)
Instead, they should note that Biden, to date, has a lot of different tracks to 270 electoral votes, while Trump has a dwindling number. Of course, Wednesday’s polls do not even deal with Trump’s potential trouble points in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – which he all won in 2016.
For what it deserves, the best / probably way to Trump for a second term is to lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania or both and to hold every other state he won in 2016. If both Michigan and Pennsylvania lose, he will score 270 to 268 electoral victories over Biden. If he lost only Pennsylvania, he would win 286 electoral votes. Michigan only loses, Trump has 290 electoral votes and a second term.
“The country is polarized as it was two months ago, and the contest’s path has not fundamentally changed, with Biden making comfortable progress in national polls and having multiple paths to obtain 270 electoral votes.
“While the daily developments of cable television networks give something to chat about, the big story today will be replaced by a new story tomorrow, and another story a day later. But the basics of the race haven’t changed.”
It is absolutely true. Even today, Biden has more ways than ever in the campaign so far to get 270 electoral votes. Trump has a smaller number.
Can it change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the electoral map looked as if Hillary Clinton would beat Trump. Heck, it looked that way throughout the fall.
The elections are not today. Trump will run a well-funded – and potentially evil – campaign – seeking to paint Biden as far from every issue – from immigration to China to race. As we mentioned in the past few months, events can intervene to change what we think we know about the November elections.
All this is true. None of that changes the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult electoral map today, with little suggestion that the main change is coming any time soon.